A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russias military upgrades. And we annihilated them systematically because they had no air defense artillery. In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. I'm thinking about, like, the election interference that we saw here in the United States. We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. Full speed into the obvious minefield. In 2022, Moscow allocated $61.7 billion for the military, the fourth biggest military budget in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). according to the Kremlin's official site. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. MCFATE: Sure. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Mines have played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine over the past year. Russia remains keen to play down the war and provides little information about its victories or defeats, contributing to an incomplete picture. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. Russias disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russias military from its Soviet-era peak. Do the sources know the information? Please try again. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. Meanwhile, in wars in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian military has preferred to "outsource" to local auxiliaries, mercenaries, and proxies the manning of defensive positions and more casualty-intensive close-quarters combat missions. Even in victorious campaigns in 1943-1945, it was typical for the Red Army to suffer higher casualties than its defeated foes. Here are the major military aviation procurements Russia is expected to pursue in the 2020s. Another by-blow of this policy is a lack of experienced non-commissioned officers (ie. Despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have weakened Russias forces. In the fall, after losing swaths of land in Ukraines east, Russia tried to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, three hours south from Vuhledar. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are engaged in fierce fighting near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove). This is just a strong supposition. [27]Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment (144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) fought near Kreminna. The Kremlin appears to be using Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as a conduit to reengage with this information operation, likely in pursuit of negotiations on favorable terms to Russia and further delays in the Wests provision of critical weapons systems to Ukraine. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. [54]Armenian officials have not yet publicly commented on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not as well as other partner offers and accept our. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on Sean McFate, welcome. Sean McFate, thanks so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us. An early example is the re-introduction of outdated T-62 tanks to Russian service. Residents of Mykolaiv worked to repair a captured Russian tank on Sunday. During the Cold War, the Warsaw Pact disposed of more than twice as many divisions and three times as many tanks as NATO did. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. Have they proved reliable in the past? A Russian bomber crew successfully landed their stricken aircraft in a field after the one of the airplanes engines failed. [46], Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in reconnaissance activity and skirmishes in the Dnipro River delta. In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian military https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795 https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680. Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Virginiabased think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted late Sunday afternoon, Its taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. B.A. Copyright 2022 NPR. Do the sources know the information? Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. Send me updates about Slate special offers. At some point, superior firepower will win out, at least in the short run. Russia has paid special attention to the development of unmanned and autonomous military systems, which it has tested in combat in eastern Ukraine, Syria, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. In September, Putin also urged Russian defense companies to modernize and increase their production capacities, advising them to study how their equipment fares against Western weapons, per state-affiliated TV channel NTV. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Ukraines military could pull back from the key eastern stronghold of Bakhmut, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said Wednesday, They've moved troops around the country in slow, lumbering convoys that have seemed to get stuck at times, and they've had trouble keeping up their supply lines. | [44]Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces immediately locate Russian artillery units on the Kinburn Spit once they fire and that these Russian units do not have enough time to evacuate the area before Ukrainian forces conduct counterbattery fire. Its seen as the first part of an expected spring offensive, and so far is not going well. The Patriot air defence is outdated. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update. [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. Want to write for Task & Purpose? Over the last few weeks, Putin has signaled an urgency for Russia to streamline and update its army's administration procedures and weapons production. Whats their motivation for telling us? All rights reserved. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a Its a bad army!. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. It's certainly horrifying. [20]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [21]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. Given the struggles the Russian military has had conducting precision strikes to force a surrender of Ukrainian military units, Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. [65], Some Russians continue limited resistance to the war in Ukraine. Similarly, tanks arent supposed to roll through hostile territory all alone. WebPutin hints that Russia's weapons are outdated, saying it needs to modernize its military hardware. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. I'm talking about sort of turning different parties against each other. Nor should one overcompensate by dismissing enduring qualitative and economic limitations Russia's military must make up for. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraines military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. Published Feb 25, 2023 3:07 PM EST. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. The Russian government has found Wagner and other private military companies to be useful as a way to extend its influence overseas without the visibility and intrusiveness of state military forces. The current Russian army is a replica of Joseph Stalin s Red Army, designed to saturate minefields with bodies. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia's weapons need to be modernized. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. But this doesnt mean they will win in the long run. But one of the lessons thats clearly evident is that the will of the people, the will of the Ukrainian people, and the importance of national leadership and the fighting skills of the Ukrainian army has come through loud and clear.. - hybrid warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. France is to reduce its military presence in Africa and transform its bases into partnerships with African soldiers, Groups are working to de-mine those areas to make them safe for civilians. And the results are the same. Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. Wagner Group-affiliated media outlet, posted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. Why have the Russians performed so poorly in the early days of the war? Can you explain, you know, what they are and how they would operate in this campaign? While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. WebRussias Overestimated Military Might. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions evasion schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 March 2. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. But any economists can tell you a dollar spent in China or Russia can buy more than a dollar in, say, Switzerland or the United States, meaning Russian military systems cost much less than Western ones, and salaries paid even to contract soldiers are much lower than in the US or Europe. That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. 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